The Forever Recession And The Coming Revolution [ECONOMY]

Posted: September 29, 2011 in News
Tags: ,

Below is my reflection of the article written for Seth Godin Blog.

ORIGINALLY POSTED HERE 

Seth states that there are two different recessions going on during the current economic down turn.

“There are actually two recessions:

The first is the cyclical one, the one that inevitably comes and then inevitably goes. There’s plenty of evidence that intervention can shorten it, and also indications that overdoing a response to it is a waste or even harmful.

The other recession, though, the one with the loss of “good factory jobs” and systemic unemployment–I fear that this recession is here forever.” 

I agree completely with this idea, but I do not fear that the factory jobs may be gone forever I KNOW THEY ARE. Factory jobs are irreplaceable and will not be returning to the USA. They can be done for way cheaper wages over seas and due to union dominance were demanding way to high of wages here for way to long.  I actually fear this will be the case with many skilled labor jobs including welding, plumbing, electrician work, and carpentry. This being the case due to changing policy on migrant workers and immigration may allow for a completely migrant workforce to handle these jobs for way less than the current USA born and raised workers demand.

Seth Then States:

“If it can be systemized, it will be. If the pressured middleman can find a cheaper source, he/she will. If the unaffiliated consumer can save a nickel by clicking over here or over there, then that’s what’s going to happen.” 

This had been the case not only with manual labor jobs but also with many desk jobs.  More and more firms are going to automated answering services, some are so good you may not even realize you just spoke to a computer.  Also many finance related jobs are being replaced by computers, like progressives online insurance buying, or etrades investment trading, or even the automated tellers and Bank of America.  These were all positions where in the past an actual human sat at a desk and did this work and now it is all being done by computer.  If you think of all of the jobs that have been replaced by computers and automation over the last 20 years it is a wonder that we do not have higher unemployment than the conservatively reported 9%.

As he then states:

“The industrial age, the one that started with the industrial revolution, is fading away. It is no longer the growth engine of the economy and it seems absurd to imagine that great pay for replaceable work is on the horizon.”

If you can’t learn and adapt to the new world you are going to get left behind. I used to tell my mom this as new technology came out with cell phones, but as a young male who is very tech savvy never thought it would apply directly to my life.  The world is moving faster than even those of us who grew up in a ever changing world can keep up with.

He then states:

“I’m not a pessimist, though, because the new revolution, the revolution of connection, creates all sorts of new productivity and new opportunities. Not for repetitive factory work, though, not for the sort of thing ADP measures. Most of the wealth created by this revolution doesn’t look like a job, not a full time one anyway.

When everyone has a laptop and connection to the world, then everyone owns a factory. Instead of coming together physically, we have the ability to come together virtually, to earn attention, to connect labor and resources, to deliver value.”

I again agree only am slightly more pessimistic.  I see the boomers having a hard time adjusting to this new world and the ones who do not have secure financial futures already could to washed over in the tsunami of cultural evolution.  Also the laptop thing is completely inaccurate, in the near future everyone will have cell phones that can do more than most laptops can today, and by the near future I mean really near like next summer (reference: Quad-Core Processors Are Coming, But Are You Ready To Say Goodbye To Your Laptop. [POWER] & Google Bought Motorola For Great Hardware Not Just Patents [BOOM!!][UPDATING]). This also applies to Google+ which is taking the aspect of satellite offices to the next generation with its huddles and document shares ETC.

“The future feels a lot more like marketing–it’s impromptu, it’s based on innovation and inspiration, and it involves connections between and among people–and a lot less like factory work, in which you do what you did yesterday, but faster and cheaper.”

The future may be in marketing we Americans are the best in the world at influencing culture and maybe that will be were everyone finds work.

“Job creation is a false idol. The future is about gigs and assets and art and an ever-shifting series of partnerships and projects. It will change the fabric of our society along the way. No one is demanding that we like the change, but the sooner we see it and set out to become an irreplaceable linchpin, the faster the pain will fade, as we get down to the work that needs to be (and now can be) done.”

Maybe one day soon offices will be a thing of the past, people will spend the workday where ever they want, with whoever they want and will still be just as productive.  However it will be difficult to feel productive when you do not make anything tangible.  The future will tell the real story.

 

 

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